From our “greatest living statistical communicator” (Tim Harford) comes an invaluable, data-driven guide for understanding―and learning to embrace―risk and uncertainty in our daily lives. How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as “highly likely”―how likely is that, really? Whether we’re trying to dec...(展开全部)

Named a Best Book of the Year by Forbes and The Economist From our "greatest living statistical communicator" (Tim Harford) comes an invaluable, data-driven guide for understanding―and learning to embrace―risk and uncertainty in our daily lives. How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as “highly likel...(展开全部)

From our “greatest living statistical communicator” (Tim Harford) comes an invaluable, data-driven guide for understanding―and learning to embrace―risk and uncertainty in our daily lives. How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as “highly likely”―how likely is that, really? Whether we’re trying to dec...(展开全部)

This revolutionary work taught the world how to systematically distinguish between risk -- randomness with knowable probabilities -- and uncertainty -- randomness with unknowable probabilities -- in order to accurately and properly ascertain a venture's potential profitability. Knight's methodology served as the foundation of the Chicago School of Economics.

This revolutionary work taught the world how to systematically distinguish between risk -- randomness with knowable probabilities -- and uncertainty -- randomness with unknowable probabilities -- in order to accurately and properly ascertain a venture's potential profitability. Knight's methodology served as the foundation of the Chicago School of Economics.

For you to be here today reading this requires a mind-boggling series of lucky breaks, starting with the Big Bang and ending in your own conception. So it's not surprising that we persist in thinking that we're in with a chance, whether we're playing the lottery or working out the likelihood of extra-terrestrial life. In Chance, a (not entirely) random selection of the New Scie...(展开全部)

兰斯·埃斯普伦德是《华尔街日报》艺术专栏的撰稿人。他曾担任彭博新闻(Bloomberg News)的艺术评论家和《纽约太阳报》(New York Sun)的首席艺术评论家，曾在帕森斯设计学院（Parsons School of Design）和赖德大学（Rider University）教授工作室艺术和艺术史，并在纽约工作室学院担任MFA访问评论家。他的文章见于《美国艺术》（Art in America）、《哈泼斯》（Harper’s）、《现代画家》（Modern Painters）和《新共和》（The New Republic）等杂志，现居于纽约布鲁克林。

The Victorian novel developed unique forms of reasoning under uncertainty-of thinking, judging, and acting in the face of partial knowledge and unclear outcome. George Eliot, Wilkie Collins, William Thackeray, Thomas Hardy, and later Joseph Conrad drew on science, mathematics, philosophy, and the law to articulate a phenomenology of uncertainty against emergent models of predic...(展开全部)

This first book by the author of Zen and the Brain examines the role of chance in the creative process. James Austin tells a personal story of the ways in which persistence, chance, and creativity interact in biomedical research; the conclusions he reaches shed light on the creative process in any field.Austin shows how, in his own investigations, unpredictable events shaped th...(展开全部)

An Artist’s Insights on Art Appreciation Written by a practicing artist, this book decodes and maps the basic elements of visual art, leading the reader to a greater understanding and appreciation. Not an art history lesson per se, this illustrated guide is rather a tool kit to make the study of art and a visit to the museum truly rewarding. An entertaining and informative read...(展开全部)