Named a Best Book of the Year by Forbes and The Economist From our "greatest living statistical communicator" (Tim Harford) comes an invaluable, data-driven guide for understanding―and learning to embrace―risk and uncertainty in our daily lives. How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as “highly likel...(展开全部)

From our “greatest living statistical communicator” (Tim Harford) comes an invaluable, data-driven guide for understanding―and learning to embrace―risk and uncertainty in our daily lives. How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as “highly likely”―how likely is that, really? Whether we’re trying to dec...(展开全部)

This revolutionary work taught the world how to systematically distinguish between risk -- randomness with knowable probabilities -- and uncertainty -- randomness with unknowable probabilities -- in order to accurately and properly ascertain a venture's potential profitability. Knight's methodology served as the foundation of the Chicago School of Economics.

For you to be here today reading this requires a mind-boggling series of lucky breaks, starting with the Big Bang and ending in your own conception. So it's not surprising that we persist in thinking that we're in with a chance, whether we're playing the lottery or working out the likelihood of extra-terrestrial life. In Chance, a (not entirely) random selection of the New Scie...(展开全部)

The Victorian novel developed unique forms of reasoning under uncertainty-of thinking, judging, and acting in the face of partial knowledge and unclear outcome. George Eliot, Wilkie Collins, William Thackeray, Thomas Hardy, and later Joseph Conrad drew on science, mathematics, philosophy, and the law to articulate a phenomenology of uncertainty against emergent models of predic...(展开全部)

Explanation – identifying and communicating what we want to say – is an art. And the BBC presenter and journalist Ros Atkins, creator of the viral ‘Ros Atkins on…’ explainer videos, is something of a master of the form. In this book, Ros shares the secrets he has learned from years of working in high-pressure newsrooms, identifying the ten elements of a good explanation and the...(展开全部)

What if being lucky was a skill that you could master and share with other people? Modern life is full of chance encounters, changing plans, delayed journeys, human errors and other mishaps. So, what if we use such unpredictability to our advantage? Dr Christian Busch has spent a decade exploring how, if acted upon, unexpected encounters can enhance our worldview, expand our so...(展开全部)

The Economics of Uncertainty and Information may be used in conjunction with Loffont's Fundamentals of Economics in an advanced course in microeconomics. Both texts provide a thorough account of modern thinking on the subject and a wealth of carefully chosen examples and problems.The first four chapters of The Economics of Uncertainty and Information summarize the essential too...(展开全部)

How can you be 100 percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expec...(展开全部)

In this "important and comprehensive" guide to statistical thinking (New Yorker), discover how data literacy is changing the world and gives you a better understanding of life’s biggest problems. The age of big data has made statistical literacy more important than ever. In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter shows how to apply statistical reasoning to real-world probl...(展开全部)